Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Jul 30 · 22:00 · Grêmio vs Bolívar
Likeliest: Grêmio win · 58%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grêmio58%72%−14
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+4
OursMarket
Bolívar20%10%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 59% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 90% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 28% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 88% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grêmio
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Jul 26 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Jul 23 · at Bolívar (A)2-3
- Jul 17 · at Mirassol (A)1-2
- May 30 · v Corinthians (H)1-3
- May 26 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-2
Bolívar
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Jul 26 · v Real Potosí (H)2-1
- Jul 23 · v Grêmio (H)3-2
- Jul 18 · v Guabirá (H)4-0
- Jul 12 · at The Strongest (A)1-1
- May 28 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Grêmio | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.