Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Sep 3 · 23:00 · Grêmio vs Internacional
Likeliest: Grêmio win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 37%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grêmio54%37%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%33%−9
OursMarket
Internacional22%30%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 38% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 63% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 56% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grêmio
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 30 · v Chapecoense (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · at Internacional (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-3
- Aug 8 · v São Paulo (H)2-1
Internacional
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Bahia (A)2-3
- Aug 27 · v Grêmio (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)0-0
- Aug 17 · v Remo (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Grêmio | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.