Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 · Grêmio vs Internacional
Likeliest: Grêmio win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grêmio38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Internacional32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grêmio
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · at Remo (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Palmeiras (H)0-0
- Sep 16 · at Botafogo (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Vitória (A)0-1
Internacional
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 7 · v Corinthians (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at São Paulo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Chapecoense (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Santos (H)2-3
- Sep 3 · at Grêmio (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Grêmio | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.