Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Wed, Aug 5 · 22:30 · Grêmio vs Mirassol
Likeliest: Grêmio win · 43%
We make it 74% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grêmio43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Mirassol29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 42% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grêmio
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 2 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
- Jul 30 · v Bolívar (H)0-1
- Jul 26 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Jul 23 · at Bolívar (A)2-3
- Jul 17 · at Mirassol (A)1-2
Mirassol
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 2 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
- Jul 29 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Jul 25 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-1
- Jul 17 · v Grêmio (H)2-1
- May 30 · at Athletico PR (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Grêmio | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.