Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 12:00 · Grenoble Foot 38 vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Grenoble Foot 38 win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 24%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grenoble Foot 3840%24%+16
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Le Mans33%49%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 51% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 76% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 32% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grenoble Foot 38
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 17 · at Montpellier (A)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Guingamp (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Clermont (H)2-2
- Mar 20 · at Laval (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Saint-Étienne (H)0-0
Le Mans
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 17 · v Clermont (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Boulogne (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Pau (H)4-0
- Mar 20 · at Amiens SC (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · at Nancy (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Grenoble Foot 38 | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-7-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.