Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:45 · Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz
Likeliest: Grenoble Foot 38 win · 62%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grenoble Foot 3862%26%+36
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Metz16%46%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 54% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 74% | −36 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 36% | +43 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grenoble Foot 38
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 8 · at USL Dunkerque (A)2-4
- May 9 · v Troyes (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Dunkerque (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Le Mans (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · at Montpellier (A)1-2
Metz
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 8 · v Guingamp (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Nice (A)0-0
- May 10 · v Lorient (H)0-4
- May 2 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Le Havre (A)4-4
| Last 10 games | Grenoble Foot 38 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.