Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 9 · 18:00 · Grenoble Foot 38 vs Troyes
Likeliest: Troyes win · 43%
A 31% home win. The market says 25%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grenoble Foot 3831%25%+6
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Troyes43%51%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 75% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 33% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grenoble Foot 38
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- May 2 · at Dunkerque (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Le Mans (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · at Montpellier (A)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Guingamp (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Clermont (H)2-2
Troyes
DrawLossWinWinWin
- May 2 · v Laval (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Saint-Étienne (A)3-0
- Apr 18 · v Boulogne (H)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Montpellier (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Grenoble Foot 38 | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.