Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Grimsby Town vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Grimsby Town win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grimsby Town37%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Burton Albion35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 61% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grimsby Town
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Newport County (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Notts County (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Crawley Town (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Bristol Rovers (H)2-0
Burton Albion
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-0
- Sep 22 · v Nottingham Forest U21 (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Oxford United (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Grimsby Town | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.