League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town
Likeliest: Grimsby Town win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grimsby Town55%55%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Northampton Town20%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grimsby Town
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Burton Albion (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Newport County (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Notts County (A)1-2
Northampton Town
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at York City (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Cambridge United (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Rotherham United (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Newport County (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.