NM Cup (Norway) · Wed, Sep 23 · 16:00 · Grorud vs Moss FK
Likeliest: Moss FK win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Grorud24%26%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Moss FK53%52%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 79% | −21 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 77% | −16 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Grorud
No recent results tracked.
Moss FK
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Haugesund (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Strømmen IF (H)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Grorud | Moss FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 100% |
| Both teams scored | — | 90% |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.