División Profesional (Bolivia) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · Guabirá vs Club Aurora
Likeliest: Guabirá win · 45%
A 30% away win. The market says 18%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guabirá45%60%−15
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Club Aurora30%18%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 82% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 40% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 77% | −17 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guabirá
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-6
- Sep 5 · v Real Potosí (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)1-3
- Aug 23 · v Blooming (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v The Strongest (H)3-1
Club Aurora
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 11 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v GV San José (H)3-0
- Aug 27 · at Club Always Ready (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Potosí (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Blooming (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Guabirá | Club Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.