División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 23:30 · Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero
Likeliest: Guabirá win · 38%
A 30% draw. The market says 26%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guabirá38%44%−6
OursMarket
Draw30%26%+4
OursMarket
Oriente Petrolero32%30%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guabirá
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at GV San José (A)1-4
- Sep 16 · v Club Aurora (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-6
- Sep 5 · v Real Potosí (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)1-3
Oriente Petrolero
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)1-0
- Sep 17 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Real Potosí (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Club Always Ready (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · at GV San José (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Guabirá | Oriente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.