CONCACAF Nations League · Tue, Sep 29 · 02:00 · Guatemala vs El Salvador
Likeliest: El Salvador win · 53%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guatemala16%47%−31
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+4
OursMarket
El Salvador53%26%+27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 74% | −27 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 53% | +31 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 64% | −42 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guatemala
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Jamaica (A)0-0
- Jun 7 · at Ecuador (A)0-3
- Jun 5 · at Czechia (A)1-3
- Jun 5 · at Czech Republic (A)1-3
- Mar 27 · at Algeria (A)0-7
El Salvador
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v Martinique (H)3-1
- Jun 6 · at Qatar (A)0-0
- Jun 4 · at Korea Republic (A)0-1
- Jun 4 · at South Korea (A)0-1
- Mar 27 · at Dominican Republic (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Guatemala | El Salvador |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 2-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.