LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 10 · 21:30 · Guayaquil City vs Emelec
Likeliest: Emelec win · 34%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 34% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guayaquil City33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+3
OursMarket
Emelec34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 39% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guayaquil City
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Orense SC (A)3-4
- Sep 2 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v LDU (H)2-1
Emelec
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Libertad (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Macará (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Manta FC (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Libertad (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Leones del Norte (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Guayaquil City | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-1 | 1-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.