LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Sep 19 · 21:30 · Guayaquil City vs Leones del Norte
Likeliest: Guayaquil City win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guayaquil City42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Leones del Norte26%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guayaquil City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Orense SC (A)3-4
- Sep 2 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v LDU (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Técnico Universitario (A)3-2
Leones del Norte
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Técnico Universitario (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Mushuc Runa (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · v Orense SC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Emelec (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Guayaquil City | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-1 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.