Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Güemes vs Almagro
Likeliest: Almagro win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Güemes25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Almagro41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Güemes
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Patronato (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v Colegiales (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Quilmes Atlético Club (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlanta (A)0-2
Almagro
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · at San Martín de San Juan (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Nueva Chicago (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Temperley (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Maipú (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Güemes | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-4 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.