Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 16:00 · Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria
Likeliest: Nigeria win · 61%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guinea-Bissau9%9%0
OursMarket
Draw29%21%+8
OursMarket
Nigeria61%70%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 30% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 12% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guinea-Bissau
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · at Tanzania (A)0-0
- Mar 31 · at Burkina Faso (A)1-1
- Mar 28 · at Burkina Faso (A)0-5
- Jun 9 · at Gabon (A)0-2
- Jun 6 · v Burundi (H)0-1
Nigeria
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Madagascar (H)0-0
- Jun 10 · at Portugal (A)1-2
- Jun 3 · at Poland (A)2-2
- May 30 · at Jamaica (A)3-0
- May 26 · v Zimbabwe (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Guinea-Bissau | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.