Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Thu, Oct 1 · 16:00 · Guinea vs Kenya
Likeliest: Guinea win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guinea56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Kenya15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 37% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guinea
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 26 · at South Africa (A)1-2
- Jun 4 · at Northern Ireland (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · v Benin (H)0-1
- Mar 27 · at Togo (A)2-2
- Nov 18 · at Niger (A)1-1
Kenya
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 26 · v Eritrea (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Lesotho (H)4-0
- Jun 4 · at Lesotho (A)1-1
- Mar 30 · at Grenada (A)3-0
- Nov 18 · v Senegal (H)0-8
| Last 10 games | Guinea | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.