Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:00 · Guingamp vs Nantes
Likeliest: Guingamp win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 31%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guingamp52%31%+21
OursMarket
Draw28%27%0
OursMarket
Nantes20%42%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 52% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 56% | −18 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 58% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 69% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 43% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guingamp
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 21 · at Sochaux (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)1-0
- Aug 8 · at Metz (A)1-2
- May 9 · at Clermont (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Bastia (H)0-1
Nantes
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Rodez AF (H)2-5
- Aug 14 · at Stade Lavallois (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Red Star FC (H)0-1
- May 8 · at Lens (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Olympique Marseille (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Guingamp | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.