Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · Guingamp vs Pau FC
Likeliest: Guingamp win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guingamp45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Pau FC28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guingamp
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at Nancy (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Red Star FC (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Annecy FC (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Stade de Reims (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Nantes (H)3-3
Pau FC
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Montpellier (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v Sochaux (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Rodez AF (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Guingamp | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.