Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · Guingamp vs Red Star FC
Likeliest: Guingamp win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Guingamp38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Red Star FC34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Guingamp
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Annecy FC (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Stade de Reims (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Nantes (H)3-3
- Aug 21 · at Sochaux (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)1-0
Red Star FC
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 14 · v Metz (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Stade Lavallois (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-4
- Aug 21 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v Sochaux (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Guingamp | Red Star FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.