División Profesional (Bolivia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · GV San José vs Guabirá
Likeliest: GV San José win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GV San José53%52%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Guabirá23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GV San José
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Bolívar (A)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Nacional Potosí (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Club Aurora (A)0-3
- Aug 25 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)3-3
- Aug 22 · at Academia del Balompié Boliviano (A)2-2
Guabirá
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 16 · v Club Aurora (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-6
- Sep 5 · v Real Potosí (H)1-1
- Aug 27 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)1-3
- Aug 23 · v Blooming (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | GV San José | Guabirá |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.