K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 13 · 10:00 · Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang
Likeliest: FC Anyang win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gwangju FC25%27%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
FC Anyang46%46%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gwangju FC
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 9 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Seoul (H)2-5
- Aug 26 · at Gangwon FC (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · v Incheon United (H)0-1
FC Anyang
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Gangwon FC (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v FC Seoul (H)0-7
| Last 10 games | Gwangju FC | FC Anyang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-6 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.