K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 11 · 05:00 · Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD
Likeliest: Ulsan HD win · 59%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gwangju FC17%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Ulsan HD59%56%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gwangju FC
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Seoul (H)2-5
Ulsan HD
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · v FC Seoul (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeju SK (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Gwangju FC | Ulsan HD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.