K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 07:30 · Gyeongnam FC vs Chungnam Asan FC
Likeliest: Chungnam Asan FC win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gyeongnam FC29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%28%+4
OursMarket
Chungnam Asan FC39%39%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 72% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gyeongnam FC
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Cheonan City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Yongin City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Seongnam FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Paju Citizen FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-1
Chungnam Asan FC
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Gimhae City FC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cheonan City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Cheongju FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Gyeongnam FC | Chungnam Asan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.