V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:15 · Hà Nội vs Sông Lam Nghệ An
Likeliest: Hà Nội win · 67%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hà Nội67%67%0
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Sông Lam Nghệ An14%12%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 63% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 88% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hà Nội
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · at Hồ Chí Minh City (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · v Công an TP.Hồ Chí Minh (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Hồ Chí Minh City (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (A)1-3
- May 24 · v Nam Định (H)2-1
Sông Lam Nghệ An
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · v Bắc Ninh FC (H)1-0
- Jun 7 · v PVF-Công An Nhân Dân (H)1-3
- Jun 7 · v PVF-CAND (H)1-3
- May 31 · at Nam Định (A)0-3
- May 31 · at Thép Xanh Nam Định (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Hà Nội | Sông Lam Nghệ An |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.