V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:00 · Hải Phòng vs Đông Á Thanh Hóa
Likeliest: Hải Phòng win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hải Phòng46%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Đông Á Thanh Hóa21%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hải Phòng
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 13 · at Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)1-4
- Jun 7 · v Nam Định (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Thép Xanh Nam Định (H)1-1
- May 31 · at PVF-CAND (A)1-3
Đông Á Thanh Hóa
LossLossWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v SHB Đà Nẵng (H)3-2
- Jun 7 · at SHB Đà Nẵng (A)0-4
- May 31 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Hải Phòng | Đông Á Thanh Hóa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 0% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.