CONCACAF Nations League · Sun, Sep 27 · 23:00 · Haiti vs Costa Rica
Likeliest: Haiti win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 35%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Haiti43%35%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Costa Rica30%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Haiti
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 25 · v Trinidad and Tobago (H)3-2
- Jun 24 · at Morocco (A)2-4
- Jun 20 · at Brazil (A)0-3
- Jun 14 · v Scotland (H)0-1
- Jun 6 · v Peru (H)1-2
Costa Rica
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 25 · v Curaçao (H)3-4
- Jun 10 · at England (A)0-3
- Jun 1 · at Colombia (A)1-3
- Mar 31 · at Iran (A)0-5
- Mar 27 · at Jordan (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Haiti | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-5 | 0-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.