CONCACAF Nations League · Fri, Sep 25 · 00:00 · Haiti vs Trinidad and Tobago
Likeliest: Haiti win · 78%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Haiti78%55%+23
OursMarket
Draw13%26%−12
OursMarket
Trinidad and Tobago9%19%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 45% | +16 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 47% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 81% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 22% | 45% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 74% | +13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 75% | +15 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Haiti
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Jun 24 · at Morocco (A)2-4
- Jun 20 · at Brazil (A)0-3
- Jun 14 · v Scotland (H)0-1
- Jun 6 · v Peru (H)1-2
- Jun 3 · v New Zealand (H)4-0
Trinidad and Tobago
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Jun 9 · at Russia (A)0-3
- May 31 · at South Korea (A)0-5
- May 31 · at Korea Republic (A)0-5
- Mar 27 · at Venezuela (A)1-4
- Mar 15 · at Bolivia (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Haiti | Trinidad and Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-5 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 3.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 0-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.