Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Halmstads BK vs AIK
Likeliest: AIK win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Halmstads BK27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
AIK46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Halmstads BK
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Göteborg (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Degerfors IF (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
- Aug 26 · at Skövde AIK (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Örgryte IS (A)1-1
AIK
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 16 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Västerås SK (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at Malmö FF (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Hammarby (H)3-2
- Aug 20 · at Piteå IF (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Halmstads BK | AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.