Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:30 · Halmstads BK vs Hammarby
Likeliest: Hammarby win · 77%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 77% for the away win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Halmstads BK7%9%−2
OursMarket
Draw16%14%+2
OursMarket
Hammarby77%77%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 10% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Halmstads BK
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v AIK (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Göteborg (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Degerfors IF (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Kalmar (H)1-0
Hammarby
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Djurgården (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Degerfors IF (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Örgryte IS (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at AIK (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Halmstads BK | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.