Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:30 · Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV42%34%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
1. FSV Mainz 0533%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 46% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · at SC Verl (A)3-0
- May 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- May 10 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-1
1. FSV Mainz 05
WinDraw
- Aug 29 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at VfB 1921 Krieschow (A)9-0
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.