Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 8 · 14:30 · Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Hamburger SV36%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund37%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 2 · at FC Köln (A)1-4
- Oct 28 · at Heidenheim (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)0-1
- Oct 18 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
- Oct 5 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 5 · at Manchester City (A)1-4
- Oct 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v FC Köln (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · at FC København (A)4-2
- Oct 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Hamburger SV form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record