Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 20 · 14:30 · Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: Eintracht Frankfurt win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 36%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt43%36%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 51% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-4
- Dec 7 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-2
- Dec 3 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Dec 13 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-0
- Dec 9 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-6
- Nov 30 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Hamburger SV form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record