Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 48%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV48%41%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
FC Augsburg28%31%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 57% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 59% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 56% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 21 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
FC Augsburg
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-5
- Mar 14 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Mar 7 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
- Feb 27 · v FC Köln (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.