Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 14 · 17:30 · Hamburger SV vs FC Köln
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 47%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV47%45%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Köln31%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 53% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 57% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-2
FC Köln
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Feb 27 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-3
- Feb 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.