Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 1 · 18:30 · Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 27%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV45%27%+18
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−4
OursMarket
RB Leipzig33%48%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 52% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 73% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 36% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Feb 20 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-2
- Feb 7 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Jan 23 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
RB Leipzig
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 21 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-2
- Feb 11 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.