Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 10 · 13:30 · Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 42%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV42%35%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
SC Freiburg33%39%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 57% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 47% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
DrawLossLossLossWin
- May 2 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
SC Freiburg
LossLossLossDrawWin
- May 7 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-1
- May 3 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
- Apr 30 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-2
- Apr 26 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Apr 23 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.