Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:30 · Hamburger SV vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 23%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV48%23%+25
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim30%54%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 46% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 77% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 30% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 18 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Apr 12 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 18 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Mar 20 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-5
- Mar 14 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.