Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Nov 30 · 14:30 · Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 30%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV39%30%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart35%44%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 41% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Nov 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Köln (A)1-4
- Oct 28 · at Heidenheim (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)0-1
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 27 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-0
- Nov 22 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
- Nov 6 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.