Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 7 · 14:30 · Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hamburger SV42%41%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Werder Bremen33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hamburger SV
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 3 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · at FC Köln (A)1-4
Werder Bremen
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Nov 29 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Nov 7 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hamburger SV | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.