Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 83%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HamKam6%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw12%13%−1
OursMarket
Bodø/Glimt83%78%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 10% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HamKam
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · at IK Start (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Kjelsås (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Molde FK (H)1-5
- Sep 5 · at Rosenborg BK (A)0-4
Bodø/Glimt
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Kristiansund BK (H)3-1
- Oct 1 · at Rana FK (A)6-2
- Sep 20 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | HamKam | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.