Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · HamKam vs Rosenborg BK
Likeliest: Rosenborg BK win · 62%
Likely score: 1–2
A 62% away win. The market says 57%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HamKam16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Rosenborg BK62%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HamKam
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at IK Start (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Kjelsås (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Molde FK (H)1-5
Rosenborg BK
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Kristiansund BK (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · at Fløya (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Tromsø IL (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | HamKam | Rosenborg BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.