Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 · Hammarby vs Djurgården
Likeliest: Hammarby win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hammarby53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Djurgården25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hammarby
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Degerfors IF (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Örgryte IS (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at AIK (A)2-3
- Aug 26 · at FC Stockholm Internazionale (A)3-0
Djurgården
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v IF Elfsborg (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · v GAIS (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at IFK Haninge (A)7-1
- Sep 7 · at Kalmar (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Mjällby (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hammarby | Djurgården |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.