2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:30 · Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli
Likeliest: Hannover 96 win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hannover 9644%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC St. Pauli31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 65% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hannover 96
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Karlsruher SC (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-0
FC St. Pauli
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Karlsruher SC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Energie Cottbus (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hannover 96 | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.