2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 20 · 11:30 · Hannover 96 vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: Hannover 96 win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hannover 9653%53%0
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184824%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hannover 96
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Karlsruher SC (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · at SV Hemelingen (A)9-1
- Aug 16 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)0-1
VfL Bochum 1848
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Aug 28 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)2-1
- Aug 14 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hannover 96 | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.