2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Aug 16 · 11:30 · Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: Hannover 96 win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 39%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hannover 9654%39%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg23%35%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 59% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 65% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 61% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 53% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hannover 96
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 9 · at Energie Cottbus (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Nürnberg (H)3-3
- May 9 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-1
- May 3 · v Preußen Münster (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-1
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 8 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
- May 25 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-1
- May 16 · at St. Pauli (A)3-1
- May 9 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-1
- May 3 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hannover 96 | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.