Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sun, Oct 18 · 17:15 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Likeliest: Hapoel Be'er Sheva win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Be'er Sheva71%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Hapoel Jerusalem11%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)2-0
Hapoel Jerusalem
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Hapoel Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.