Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Sep 7 · 17:30 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Hapoel Be'er Sheva win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Be'er Sheva61%37%+24
OursMarket
Draw19%27%−7
OursMarket
Maccabi Tel Aviv20%37%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 63% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 63% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 50% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · at Sabah FK (A)2-3
- Aug 19 · v Sabah FK (H)0-0
- Aug 11 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)2-0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 31 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v FC Lugano (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)5-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Lugano (A)1-2
- Aug 13 · at CSKA Sofia (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.