Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Sep 14 · 16:30 · Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Likeliest: Hapoel Haifa win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Haifa47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%28%+1
OursMarket
Bnei Sakhnin25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Haifa
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 7 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 18 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)3-0
- May 13 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)1-1
Bnei Sakhnin
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 7 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)1-2
- Aug 24 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)0-0
- May 18 · at Hapoel Haifa (A)0-3
- May 13 · v Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Haifa | Bnei Sakhnin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.